News Update
February 3, 2012
NCBA: Experts Project Tighter Cattle Supplies, Record Expo
As cattle supplies remain tight and global demand intensifies, profitability for cattle ranchers will continue in the year ahead, CattleFax analysts told cattlemen during remarks delivered at the 2012 Cattle Industry Convention and NCBA Trade Show in Nashville, Tenn.
"The economic signals are in place for restocking to begin this year," said CattleFax CEO Randy Blach. "All we need now is a little encouragement from Mother Nature."
Art Douglas, of Creighton University, set the expectation that, although there have been three months of near-normal rainfall in parts of Texas, drought will continue to play a role in determining if and when the cow herd expands. Douglas expects much of Texas to return to dry conditions by late spring or early summer. He also predicts drought will spread into southern California, the Northern Plains and coastal areas of the southeast United States.
"By March a trough of low pressure should become established in the inland West and this will lower temperatures though precipitation will remain light at 75%-90% of normal along the coast," said Douglas. "These dry spring conditions will extend from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Plains. Dry spring weather is expected to persist in the Southeast where precipitation should run 80% of normal in coastal areas. Florida should show some improvement in moisture conditions by late spring."
Despite shifting drought conditions, Blach told the audience he expects cattle inventory numbers will decline slightly in 2012 and reach a low point in 2013, before increasing in 2014 and beyond. Although herd growth may remain elusive, an increase in average carcass weights will partially offset the decline in inventory numbers, he said. The decline in cattle numbers means prices can be expected to move higher in 2012. Tight supplies of cattle and beef will be compounded by continued growth in the export markets, with expanded access into Japan and continued increases in the volume and value of beef being sold into export channels, according to Blach.
"We anticipate additional good news from Japan, perhaps during the first half of the year," said Blach of the effort to expand trade to include beef derived from cattle up to 30 months of age.
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He said Japan won't be the only export market to see significant growth during 2012. In fact, U.S. beef exports, which set records in 2011, will likely set new highs in 2012 as a result of strong overall global demand and continued weakness in the U.S. dollar.
NCBA Calls Estate Tax Top Priority, Pushes Back on Regulation
A recording-breaking crowd of nearly 7,000 cattlemen and women from across the country jockeyed for a seat at the second general session of the 2012 Cattle Industry Convention and National Cattlemen's Beef Association (NCBA) Trade Show in Nashville, Tenn. NCBA President-Elect J.D. Alexander painted a picture of regulatory chaos in Washington, D.C., but pointed to grassroots advocacy as the primary reason the cattle industry was able to "weather the storm."
"Because of the partnership between our state affiliates and your national organization, we managed to prevent ourselves from being the main course at the big government café," said Alexander, who is also a cattleman from Nebraska. "This partnership — this grassroots policy process — is the shining star of this industry. You have a voice and it is being heard loud and clear."
Alexander used the slew of regulations from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA); the USDA Grain Inspection, Packers and Stockyard Administration (GIPSA) proposed rule on livestock marketing; and the Department of Transportation's proposed rule, which would have required cattlemen to acquire commercial driver's licenses, as examples of cattlemen's successful pushback of burdensome regulations. Alexander said NCBA will continue pushing for practical legislation and a commonsense approach to regulations. He called the estate tax his top policy priority as the 2012 NCBA president.
"I pledge to you that my top priority as your president is to do all I can to build beef demand and producer profitability. This can only be accomplished if we are allowed to operate without government intervention and, most importantly, if decisions are made to ensure future generations are able to take over our family businesses," Alexander said. "The death tax is the biggest deterrent to young people returning to the cattle business. What we need now are jobs, a stable economy and food for a growing global population. Leaving the next generation to choose between a life they love or the inability to pay the estate tax is not something we will tolerate."
National Cattlemen's Foundation Awards Scholarship
A prestigious cattle industry award and 10 scholarships to deserving students were presented by the National Cattlemen's Foundation (NCF) during the 2012 Cattle Industry Convention and NCBA Trade Show, Feb. 2, 2012, in Nashville, Tenn.
Developed in honor of Max Deets, who served as the NCBA president in 1997, the Max Deets Scholarship Award was established through contributions from the Kansas Livestock Association (KLA) and NCBA. The award is presented each year to the chairman of NCBA's Young Cattlemen's Conference (YCC) on the basis of outstanding leadership.
The 2012 Max Deets Scholarship Award was presented to Levi Berry of Happy, Texas. Berry is manager of Smith Cattle Co. Ltd., headquartered in Amarillo, Texas. He grew up on a stocker cattle and farming operation in Texas and attended Texas A&M University, where he majored in animal science and was a member of the livestock judging team.
Ten $1,500 scholarships were also awarded by NCF to students pursuing careers in the beef industry. These scholarships are sponsored by CME Group. The top winner was Malorie Bankhead, a student at California Polytechnic State University, who also received a trip to the 2012 Cattle Industry Convention.
Also receiving scholarships were Megan Webb, Texas A&M University; Meghan Blythe, Kansas State University; Maci Lienemann, Norris High School (Nebraska); Trenton Blythe, White City High School (Kansas); Matthew McQuagge, Abraham Baldwin Agricultural College (Florida); Valene Lickley, Valley High School (Idaho); Katie Ochsner, Casper College (Wyoming); Reagan Kays, Kansas State University; and Cade Sallee, Fowler High School (Colorado).
Future of Animal Agriculture is Topic of Ag Leadership Forum
The Book Harmon Leadership Program at Purdue University is hosting a forum on the future of animal agriculture Feb. 14 in West Lafayette, Ind.
The forum is free and open to the public. The day's events include the Ag Summit — a panel discussion among returning Book Harmon fellows — as well as a graduate student roundtable discussion, keynote address and recognition of the 2012 fellows. Activities run from 9 a.m. to 4 p.m. in the Pfendler Hall Deans Auditorium, 715 W. State St. An open reception will take place 4-5 p.m. in Room 3-113 A in Lilly Hall, 915 W. State St.
Jay Akridge, Purdue's Glenn W. Sample Dean of Agriculture, will start the day moderating the 9 a.m. Ag Summit. The discussion topic will be "Agriculture Addresses Global Challenges." Participants are Dean Boyd, technical director at Hanor Farms; Mike Siemens, animal welfare and husbandry at Cargill; Angie Siemens, vice president of technical services at Cargill; Mark Stapleton, global marketing director at Philbro Animal Health; Patsy Houghton, owner and general manager of Heartland Cattle Co.; Don Orr, president of JBS United; and Carol Mutter, three-star general in the Marine Corps.
At 12 p.m., Boyd will give the forum's keynote address, "Preparing to Make an Impact in Animal Agriculture."
"We encourage anyone with interest in the global challenges agriculture faces today to attend," said Jean Harris, Book Harmon Leadership Program Manager.
Bob Book and Bud Harmon established the Book Harmon Leadership Program in Animal Sciences in an effort to provide and promote leadership in animal agriculture.
More information about the event is available on the Purdue Agriculture calendar at http://www.ag.purdue.edu/Lists/Agriculture%20Calendar/DispForm.aspx?ID=63.
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